The Get out the Vote from jail or Israeli Prison turnout

New fun Israel election fact. Ynet News:

Voting closed at 8 pm on Tuesday at the Israel Prison Service with 81.74% of the 10,000 eligible citizens serving time in prison carrying out their right to vote.

I am not surprised prisoners can vote, we have been doing that for years in Canada, but what surprises me is that they cannot get a better turnout from the prisoner population.

Update:  I found a picture from today's vote in an unnamed Israeli prison at Jpost...Photo Credit: Ben Hartman

 

The Key to Heaven or why Israelis have the greatest election rules

Imagine have an election law specifically prohibiting the handing out of blessings, amulets or curses?

Jpost:

The keys to heavenly paradise are yours if you vote Shas. That at least is the message from beyond the grave of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the late, revered spiritual leader of the Shas party, which has appeared on cards being handed out to voters by party activists today.

The card bears on one side an image of a a golden key and on the other side the words a picture of Yosef with the phrase “The word of Maran [Yosef]: Whoever votes Shas goes to straight to the Garden of Eden.

Distributing amulets, promising blessings as a result of voting for a certain party or threatening curses for voting for the ‘wrong’ party or all forbidden by the Law for Knesset Elections.

An appeal against the distribution of the cards was upheld by the chairman of the Central Elections Committee Supreme Court Justice Salim Joubran on Tuesday and the party was banned from handing them out. Shas has however however been using several other means to reach out to their potential voters to inform them of how Yosef would want them to vote.

A message sent out by SMS and WhatsApp to voters reads “Maran Rabbi Ovadia Yosef: I won’t forgive someone who does not vote Shas, not in this world and not in the world to come.”

Photo Credit: Kikar Hashabbat.

Israeli election primer or the anyone but Bibi election

Israel was founded as a socialist state, and even in 2015, it reminds, more or less, one. It is important to understand that ordinary Israelis are a long way from abandoning their socialist roots which why a party like Meretz (the Israeli Jewish version of the Communist Party) still has a place on the Israeli political map.

The first truism of Israeli politics is to understand all politics starts on the left end of the political spectrum in Israel. What makes a party left or rightwing in Israel has nothing to do with political theory or  idealogy as much as where each party stands on the security issues.  This is why a party like Shas which fully supports the idea of a social welfare state, but is characterized as a ‘right-wing’ party.

 If I were to map economic theory and policies to equivalent Canadian political road map and removed the ‘security issues’ which define a party as left or right wing. The Israeli Labour party would stand far to the left of the New Democratic party, Likud would stand somewhat to the left of the Liberals, and the Jewish home still stand somewhat around Joe Clark Conservatives.

Parties like Yesh Atid lead by former  television personality Yair Lapid, and Kulanu (“All of Us”) lead by former Likud member Moshe Kahlon represent the Israeli ‘centre’ which means it is nestled  between Labor and Likud but remains firmly on the socialist left. Yesh Atid, strength comes from the Ashkenazi secular and anti-religious establishment; while Kuhlon represents traditional but not particularly observant Israeli element. 

Israeli polls are notoriously unreliable and usually have a large margin of error - despite the usual 4.5 percentage representing their official margin of error. . Let me give you a concrete example of the failure of the Israeli pollsters. The strength of new comer Yesh Atid (Futurist Party) with 19 seats in the 2013 election was the surprise. No pollster was predicting a Future sweep of 19 mandates, and had pegged Yesh Atid with 12 seats in best case scenarios. That 7 seat difference made hogwash out of that 4.5 margin of error.

In the 2013 cycle, Likud ran on a combined ticket with Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our home).  Yisrael Beiteinu was head by clowned prince of Israeli politics, Avigdor Lieberman. This cycle, Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu is running on separate tickets. Liebrman’s party is mired in the middle of what could turn out to be the ‘mother’ of all Israeli corruption scandals - and that's saying something. Yisrael Beitenu drew its membership from the secular Russian immigrant community.  Yedioth has pegged their mandates to around 5 seats for the 2015 cycle down from the 11 or so mandates Yisrael Beitenu brought in the last election cycle. So the question we need to ask ourselves  is; where are those  mandates likely to end up in this current election cycle?

The Labour ticket this election cycle is a combined ticket with Hatnua lead by Tzippi Livni. In the last election cycle Livni’s Hatnua party garnered 6 mandates, but with the defection of some major supporters, and a stunningly poor parliamentary showing by Livni during the last government, Hatnua would be lucky to make the voting threshold for 1 mandate let alone 6. Hence, the desire early in the election cycle to join the Labor ticket. Labor is projected to carry 26 mandates according to the last Yedioth Ahronoth poll published.   
 
So if we were to combine the previous 5 mandates from Hatnua and Labor’s party’s 15, we have a net Labor gain 4 seats but from where do these people come from? It is not likely they are former Yisrael Beiteinu supporters.

The Israeli Centre – where even the centre is split.

Yesh Atid – Centre Left (Sort of, kind of)

This brings us to the last election surprise, Yesh Atid (Futurist party). Yesh Atid is considered a ‘Israeli centralist secular Ashkenazi’ party. In the last knesset session, Yesh Atid received 19 mandates, but are now projected to only retain 12 mandates. This is the result of the declining popularity and the dismal performance shown by Yair Lapid. He has an absolutely disastrous turn as Finance Minister, and sponsored legislation for drafting the Charedim.

Normally, this would be a pretty popular move outside of Charedim circles, but inserting a jail term for non-compliance was widely viewed as overtly harsh. One of the problems with Lapid is that he never works well with others. Too long a television prima donna? Perhaps. So where will those former Yesh Atid supporters go? My best guess – probably a relatively even split between Labor or Kalanu.

Kalanu – Centre Right:

The former Likud Minister of Communications and Minister of Welfare and Social Services left Likud and politics in 2013. During his tenure as a Likud Minister, he lowered electricity rates for the poor, headed an inquiry into Bank Charges, and he is thought to have been the driving force into opening up the cellular phone market in Israel. This move directly lead to increased competition and lower rates for consumers. Kahlon remains enormously popular in Israeli politics. Yedioth has newcomer Kalanu pegged with 8 mandates. I think there is a reasonable possibility that Kalanu will end higher. Here is the nature home for more centralist Likud members, dissatisfied Yesh Atid voters and potentially former Yisrael Beiteinu voters who still want to cast a vote but not for the clowned prince of Israeli politics.

Religious Parties:

In Israel, religious parties are ‘characterized as ‘right-wing’ parties but it would be more accurate to characterize these parties as pragmatic parties of self-interest.  They will willingly sit in any coalition government provided their interests are served. Pay them off and they will tow pretty much whatever line you want.

Shas came into the last Knesset with 11 mandates, but owing to the leadership fall out between convicted felon Aryeh Deri and Eli Yishai, Yishai left to form his own Charedi party Yachad. Yachad has subsequently merged with Otzma Yehudit to become the Yachad Ha Am Itanu ticket. I have to be honest, I just do not understand why any voter would cast a vote with Deri at the helm of Shas. My gut says, Shas support will bleed a lot more than 4 mandates this election cycle.

Yachad – Ha Am Itanu. Eli Yishai’s new party is pegged at 4, just barely making the mandate for a seat in the Knesset. He has his demographic and bleeds Shas’ support. It is a religious based party with right wing security issues. Yishai is thought to be reasonable and someone Likud can work with. Shas primarily represented religiously observant Sephardic voters.

United Torah Judaism. An Ashkenazi Charedim party.  Owning to party leader Yair Lapid sponsoring the Charedim draft bill, United Torah Judaism swears it will not sit in any coalition in which Yesh Atid is a member. I think they are pretty serious about this….but the bribe to get them to change their mind might bankrupt the country.

The Israel Loonie Left:

The Zionist Union - This is a merged ticket with the Israeli Labor and Tzippi Livni’s Hatnua party. Livni started out as a Likud member, then jumped ship to go with Ariel Sharon in Kadima, she eventually headed Kadima only to lose an election and the party leadership. After a good sulk, she decided to found her own political party so she could be a  leader, more or less indefinitely. No one likes her, she whines a lot and does not play well with others. She will never be elected Prime Minister except by stealth.

The Israeli Labor party had a proud history and is now being run by a man who just narrowly escaped indictment for election fraud during Ehud Barak’s run for Prime Minister. He’s got a tin ear and speaks with a high pitch whine. Apparently, he has been undergoing speech therapy for that.  Yitzhak "Boujie" Herzog is part of the Ashkenazi elite in Israel. Herzog’s platform consists in being primarily as ‘Not BIBI’. This more or less works for Obama. In fact, if I were to describe Herzog with an Americanism; I would call him 'all hat, no cattle'. He made a disaster deal to merge his ticket with Tzippi Livni and offered her a rotating Prime Ministership; if they win.

No one in their right mind should want Herzog to be able to form a coalition and negotiate with the Palestinians or the White House. The real irony in ‘Zionist Union’ ticket is just how many anti-zionist have united behind Herzog. In a surprise move, Herzog and Livni have announced that Livni has offered to give up the rotating premiership. She's taking one for the team...of course, I haven't seen anything in writing, and when dealing with Livni; you need it in writing, witnessed and backed up with video. 


The Zionist Union is currently running with 26 mandates and still cannot form a government. The religious parties will not sit with any government which includes Yair Lapid. Meretz won’t still in any coalition which includes a religious party. And there is a good chance Yesh Atid will never sit with any Labor coalition that includes the Joint Arab List.

Joint Arab List, is a combined ticket for three different Arab parties who decided to bury their differences in order to present a united front against the ‘Zionists’. Reality is, there is new legislation raising the bar for votes needed to enter the Knesset and none of the Arab parties could reach the bar on their own without banding together.  They are not good neighbours and it is simply a matter of time before the ‘UAL’ explores into inter politic clashes among themselves.

Meretz. Forget these losers, they will be lucky to hold onto 5 mandates and I will not cry if they don’t make the threshold. Never having to read a headline quoting Gal-On again – is simply priceless. Of course, they will not sit in any coalition with a religious party.

The Israel Right.

Yisrael Beiteinu lead by Lieberman, clowned Prince of Israeli politics.  Massive corruption scandal decimated what was left of Lieberman's party list just after the Knesset was dissolved. Yisrael Beiteinu drew its base from the secular Russian immigrant community and it will be interesting to see if Yisrael Beiteinu's base chooses to stay home or throw in their lot with another party.  Likud is the natural option, but Bennett at Bayit Yehudi did a stellar job representing Israel's case during the recent conflict with Gaza, and his 'stop apologizing' promotional videos might just appeal.

Likud lead by Bibi Netanyahu. The party everyone loves to hate – with good reason. This isn't the Likud of Menachem Begin, but Netanyahu remains the only leader who has a reasonable chance of clubbing together a coalition, and Likud still has the 'get out the vote' machine in place. In fact, even with 21 mandates, he can easily pull 64 mandates without Yesh Atid, JAL or even the Zionist Union.

The real shame about Israeli democracy, is that you cannot have two Prime Ministers. One to deal with all foreigners, and another to run the country. Bibi’s real weakness in the last two Knesset sessions has been running the country internally. Bibi gives a great Anglo sound bite but it takes more to govern Israel. Furthermore, Bibi is slippery even when not wet and I would not put it pass him not to have been making a backroom deal to enter into a 'unity coalition government' with the Zionist Union with the caveat Livni never has a turn with leadership of the Zionist Union before the votes are cast.

This brings me to Bayit Yehudi run by Naftali Bennett. Pollsters are predicting Bayit Yehudi, despite Bennet’s rising profile in the last Knesset, will maintain only 12 mandates. There are rumours that Bayit Yehudi is now polling in single digits, but without hearing of increased mandates for Likud or Kalanu, I am not buying it since Bennett is not guilty of any recent missteps to account for a sudden recent drop. At the start of the campaign trail Bennett was polling 16-17 mandates and rising. A miss-step mid-way in the campaign saw a descent in the number of mandates in an act designed to widen the appeal and base of his party. I  would not count Bennett out entirely and he is widely believed to be a ‘future’ Prime Ministerial material...just not in this election.

If I was an Israeli voter, I would be hard pressed to vote between Kalanu and Bayit Yehudi. After the Zionist Union's 11th hour announcement. It's Bayit Yehudi all the way for me. I wouldn't want Bibi getting into bed with Herzog-Livini, and the best way to prevent that is a strong Bayit Yehudi.

So my predictions; Likud forms the government with Bibi as Prime Minister in a strong rightwing coalition. Last night, there was a right wing rally in Tel Aviv's Rabin Square. Ha'aretz suggests only 25,000 showed up. Arutz Sheva claims 100,000. If the truth lies closer to Arutz Sheva's estimates on election day we will be watching a left wing impulsion. The election commission would not allow any Israeli singers to perform at rally last night in Tel Aviv, so Naftali Bennett took to the stage to sing Jerusalem of Gold.

The guy who tried to run for POTUS in a space says...

'Demanding Iran's capitulation' is no way to get a nuclear deal done.  And like, the Space Suit Guy should know....

Ever wonder what kind of mail the Israeli Ambassador to Germany receives?

 He reads a sample. Watch and learn.

Emerson Swift Mahon, Jew

On the last day of Black History month, I found this via  Mosaic Magazine via CJN:

Emerson Swift Mahon, born a Christian, left his native Grenada for Canada in 1912 in search of higher education and harboring a deeply-felt interest in Judaism. Two years later, he enlisted in the Canadian army to fight in World War I, and there met a Jewish chaplain named Herman Abramowitz. Eiran Harris writes: 


Mahon persuaded Rabbi Abramowitz of his sincere desire to convert, and after a lengthy course of instruction in the intricacies of Judaism, an appropriate test of knowledge, and a religious ceremony, Rabbi Abramowitz signed the conversion certificate. 

After the war Mahon settled in Winnipeg and graduated in 1929 with a science degree from the University of Manitoba. . . . Unfortunately, the Depression forced him to accept a job as a sleeping-car porter with the Canadian Pacific Railway. . . . In Winnipeg, Mahon joined Young Judaea, a Zionist youth organization, and quickly rose through the ranks. His work on the railway enabled him to organize chapters throughout Western Canada as well as to photograph every synagogue between Winnipeg and Vancouver. Mahon also became proficient in Hebrew and Yiddish: “on the way to synagogue on Saturday mornings, it was quite common to observe Mahon urging his children, in Yiddish, to hurry along.”

Galut vs Jews

Ryan Bellarose, a writer at Israellycool, asks an interesting question in a post called ‘History Lesson’.

 I see these same problems now with young Jewish people in North America. Aside from a few, they have not been properly taught their own history, and they have been sold a false narrative. Instead of being proud at surviving almost ridiculous odds, and achieving something no other displaced indigenous people has ever accomplished, they feel shame at their people’s success. 

 How messed up is that? They come from a people who, today, number maybe 14 million worldwide, yet whose contributions to the world far outweigh their mere numbers, yet they feel ashamed? They come from a nation that survived two thousand years of exile, only to emerge triumphant to retake their ancestral lands from the hands of their colonizers. Yet they are made to feel like they have done something wrong and must apologize? No.

We need to ask: how did we allow the twisting of the quintessential bully story? 

To answer Ryan, one needs an understanding of Jewish history and the make-up of North American Jews.  North America is host to the largest Jewish community outside of Israel. If we were to examine the Jewish community in North American, the largest single group of Jews is self-identified as ‘secular or culturally’ Jewish. The second largest group, after those self-identifying ‘secular’ Jews, comes from the ranks of ‘Reform Judaism’. I suspect the vast majority of those ‘secular’ Jews also draw their roots from the Reform movement, but I digress.

Reform Judaism was born in Germany in the 19^th century. I am not going to go over all the ins and outs of the Reform movement, since this history bores me senseless (and I would rather curl up with my bio of Rav Kook) but suffice to say that Reform Judaism rejected a number of core Jewish beliefs. Among those beliefs rejected by the early Reform movement was a belief in the coming messiah to redeem the Jewish people and re-establish our state in our ancestral homeland or the re-building of our Temple in Jerusalem. Reform Judaism rejected idea that any Jew was dwelling in exile. To Reform Jews, there simply was no Galut.  Jews were full citizens of those societies in which they were dwelling, and the only meaningful Jewish mission was to address universal issues of social justice faced by both Jews and non-Jews of those societies. 

It was imperative to the early Reform Jewish thinkers that Judaism became merely a religion, just like any other religion.Nazi Germany killed off most of the ‘Reform’ Jews of Europe, and after the Shoah, Reform Judaism ceased to be a significant religious stream of interest outside North America. The devastation laid to waste in the Shoah did cause a serious ‘rethink’ by Reform Jewish philosophers towards ‘Zionism’ (the movement for self-deter mination for the Jewish people) for a time, but the kind of ‘Zionism’ the North American Reform Jewish community was prepared to support could not have a religious nationalist component; hence, their contempt towards the Dati Leumi movement. Concepts based on ‘indigenous rights’ for the Jewish people in their historic homeland conflicted with the founding characteristics of Reform Judaism. 

This is why so many so-called progressive Jewish organizations like J Street, B'Tselem or Rabbis for Human Rights often appear to be so ‘anti-Jewish’ in nature and drawn the bulk of their Jewish membership from the Reform community. That is not to say, all Reform or Reform influenced Jews are ignorant of their history and/or refuse to recognize themselves as members of Kol Yisrael, but as North American Reform Judaism moves closer and closer to being a general religion based on humanitarian, rather than, Jewish values, well, they risk being our lost tribe rather than a members of our tribe. 

To complicate matters further, political progressive liberals, put enormous pressure on secular and reform Jews to actively disassociate and divorce themselves from the community of Kol Yisrael. Elliot Abrams touches on this in a recent article on this very theme highlighting the Obama Administration’s manufactured outrage over everything ‘Israeli’.

The third Obama administration reason for building up this crisis is also deadly serious: it is to use the current tension to harm Israel’s support in the United States permanently. All opinion polls in the last several years show a partisan edge in support: overall support for Israel is steady and high, but its composition is changing. More and more Republicans support Israel, and the gap between Democratic and Republican support levels is growing. President Obama acts as if he sees this as a terrific development, one that should be enlarged as much as possible before he leaves office. That way he would leave behind not just an Iran deal, but weakened support for Israel on Iran and everything else.  Support for Israel would become less of a bipartisan matter and more a divisive issue between the two parties. It is not hard to envision Obama in retirement joining Jimmy Carter as a frequent critic of Israel, pushing the Democratic party to move away from its decades of very strong support for the Jewish state.

Perhaps this manufactured crisis will diminish after Netanyahu’s speech, where he is likely to say things that many Democrats still agree with. Perhaps it will diminish if Iran rejects any deal, even on the terms the Obama administration is offering. Perhaps Netanyahu will lose his election and a new Labor Party-led government will appear in Jerusalem. But more likely, the remaining 23 months of the Obama administration will be months of continuing tension between Israel and the United States. That is because the administration desires that tension and views it as productive. The problem is not Netanyahu’s speech, which right or wrong to deliver should be a minor and passing factor in bilateral relations. The real issues are deeper and far more serious. This president has fostered a crisis in relations because it advances his own political and policy goals. That is what his subordinates and many Democrats in Congress are trying very hard, and with real success, to obfuscate.

Jewish history is long and diverse. We have seen this type of Jew before. They are not self-hating Jews, but Hellenistic Jews, robed in modern garb. To modern Hellenistic Jews, the greatest threat to their existence comes not from murderous intentions of  Anti-Semites and Assimilationists, but to the fidelity shown by the Jewish people to the covenant of our Torah in our land.