Everyone knows

If you were to search to find articles discussing whether home demolitions of suicide bombers were an effective strategy against terrorism you will find countless articles all saying the practice was ineffective, and consequently, the Israeli military abandoned wide-spread home demolitions around 2006.

The original military study was highly flawed in methodology and used an incredibly small and narrow sample but the conclusions were widely championed by not only by the Israeli left but by progressives world wide.  

Regardless, the political sphere in Israel, has taken up home demolitions of any Palestinian engaged in terror in recent years for horrendous acts of terror commited by Palestinians against Israeli civilians in around 2010.

In May 2014, Hebrew University, released a much larger and comprehensive study on the practice of punitive home demolitions, and concluded, that a decrease in terrorism resulted.

 So my point being, what everyone is alleged to know, is often wrong.

Someone needs to teach Palestinians not to riot

and throw stones at guys with guns. There is a great deal of noise suggesting the Intifada of Lone Wolves is the third Palestinian Intifada, but regardless, a third Palestinian Intifada really won't work out any better than the first or second Intifada.

Nothing seems to unite Palestinians of all fractions like a riot. It has increasingly become hard to argue that rioting, throwing stones, and stabbing/killing Jews, it not the cornerstone of Palestinian culture.

Since Abbas gave notice he was repudiating the Oslo Accords; does this mean we can move in now?

As per Mahmoud Abbas’ characterization of Palestinians and their culture of peace and coexistence, I thought it would be instructive to detail what the last 7 months looks like living beside a people who have a culture of peace since so many ‘peaceful incidents’ never make the international papers.  

The Israeli Shabak (internal security) or as it is known by its acronym (the Shin Bet) just happens to carries a monthly summary of all attacks.

January2015

 Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  0 attack from the Gaza Strip, (2 in December); 105 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (133 in December); 18 attacks in Jerusalem (26 in December); Green Line: 1 attack. 
Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in January 102 out of 123 were in the form of firebombs (December: 127 out of 159). 
 Distribution of attacks according to regions and pattern profile: 
Following is a distribution of attacks in January 2015 according to regions:
The Gaza Strip – 0 attack. 
Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 123 attacks: 17 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade); 3 small arms shooting; 1 stabbing attacks (in Jerusalem); 102 firebombs (17 in Jerusalem).
 The Green Line – 1 attack: stabbing (in Tel Aviv).

February2015

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  0 attack from the Gaza Strip, (as in January); 84 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (105 in January); 12 attacks in Jerusalem (18 in January).

Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in February 76 out of 96 were in the form of firebombs (January: 102 out of 123). 

Following is a distribution of attacks in February 2015 according to regions:

The Gaza Strip – 0 attack.

Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 96 attacks: 15 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade); 4 small arms shooting; 1 stabbing attacks (in Jerusalem); 76 firebombs (11 in Jerusalem).

March2015

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  0 attack from the Gaza Strip, (as in February); 58 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (84 in February); 31 attacks in Jerusalem (12 in February).
Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in February 78 out of 89 were in the form of firebombs (February: 76 out of 96). 
Following is a distribution of attacks in March 2015 according to regions:
The Gaza Strip – 0 attack.
 Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 89 attacks: 8 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade); 2 small arms shooting; 1 stabbing attack (in Jerusalem); 78 firebombs (30 in Jerusalem).  

April 2015

An Israeli civilian was killed and another seriously injured in a vehicle attack at Jerusalem's French Hill on 15 April. Eight members of the security forces were injured in several stabbings and vehicle attacks. Four police officers were injured (two moderately and the other two slightly) in a vehicle attack near A-Tor in Jerusalem on 25 April. Three IDF soldiers and a border police officer were injured in stabbings: one IDF soldier was slightly wounded at the Trans-Samaria Checkpoint on 2 April; two soldiers were injured (one seriously and the other slightly) at Sinjil Checkpoint near Ramallah on 8 April; and a border police officer was moderately injured near the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron on 25 April.

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  1 attack from the Gaza Strip, (0 in March); 82 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (58 in March); 38 attacks in Jerusalem (31 in March).

 Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in February 108 out of 120 were in the form of firebombs (March: 78 out of 89). 

 The Gaza Strip – 1 attack: rocket launching.

 Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 120 attacks: 7 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade); 2 run-over (in Jerusalem); 2 stabbing; 108 firebombs (36 in Jerusalem).

Throughout April 2015 one rocket was launched** from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, while in March no rockets or mortar shells were launched from Gaza Strip or Sinai towards Israel.

  

May2015

9 Israeli citizens (6 civilians and 3 members of the security forces) were injured in terrorist attacks in May. 6 of them suffered injuries in vehicle attacks, and 3 were stabbed in Judea and Jerusalem.

Vehicle attacks: one police officer was slightly injured in Hebron on 9 May; 3 civilians were injured (one moderately and 2 slightly) at Alon Shvut Junction on 14 May; and 2 police officers were slightly injured in Abu Tor, Jerusalem on 20 May.

Stabbings: one civilian was slightly injured in Mishor Adumim on 11 May, and 2 civilians were slightly injured at Jerusalem's Damascus Gate on 24 May.

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  1 attack from the Gaza Strip, (as in April); 91 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (82 in April); 60 attacks in Jerusalem (38 in April).

Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in February 129 out of 151 were in the form of firebombs (April: 108 out of 120). 

 Distribution of attacks according to regions and pattern profile:

The Gaza Strip – 1 attack: rocket launching. 

Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 151 attacks: 2 run-over (1 in Jerusalem); 2 stabbing (1 in Jerusalem); 2 small arms shooting; 16 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade);  129 firebombs (58 in Jerusalem).

 High-trajectory launchings from Gaza Strip and Sinai

 Throughout May 2015 one rocket was launched** from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, as in April.**Clarification: The number of launchings is the number of rockets/mortar shells actually launched during one high-trajectory fire attack. For example: one attack may include a salvo of three launchings, that is, three rockets/ mortar shells, and so it will be counted as one attack and three launchings.

June 2015

Two Israeli citizens were killed in shootings in Judea and Samaria: one near Dir Abzia on 19 June, and the other near Kida on 29 June.Eight Israelis (5 civilians and 3 members of the security forces) were injured in terrorist attacks in June. 4 civilians were wounded in the abovementioned lethal shootings (one on 19 June and 3 on 29 June). Two IDF soldiers were stabbed: one was critically wounded at Jerusalem's Damascus Gate on 21 June, and another was moderately injured at Rachel's Crossing checkpoint near Bethlehem on 29 June. A civilian and a police officer were injured by firebombs: one near Shuafat refugee camp on 13 June, and the other near Hizma on 21 June.

Data regarding terror attacks in June 2015

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  3 attack from the Gaza Strip, (1 in May); 69 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (91 in May); 51 attacks in Jerusalem (60 in May). 

Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in June 98 out of 120 were in the form of firebombs (May: 129 out of 151).   

Distribution of attacks according to regions and pattern profile:

 The Gaza Strip – 3 attacks: rocket launching.

 Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 120 attacks: 2 stabbing (1 in Jerusalem); 4 small arms shooting; 16 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade);  98 firebombs (50 in Jerusalem).

  High-trajectory launchings from Gaza Strip and Sinai

 Throughout June 2015 three rockets were launched** from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, compared to one rocket in May.

July 2015

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  1 attack from the Gaza Strip, (3 in June); 63 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (69 in June); 42 attacks in Jerusalem (51 in June); 1 attack from Sinai. 

Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in July 90 out of 105 were in the form of firebombs (June: 98 out of 120). 

 Distribution of attacks according to regions and pattern profile:

 The Gaza Strip – 1 attack: rockets launching.

 Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 105 attacks: 1 stabbing; 2 small arms shooting; 12 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade);  90 firebombs (50 in Jerusalem).

 Sinai – 1 attack: rockets launching.

 High-trajectory launchings from Gaza Strip and Sinai 

 August 2015

5 Israeli citizens were slightly injured in stabbings. One civilian and one member of the security forces were stabbed on Route 443 on 9 and 15 August, respectively. Two members of the security forces were stabbed in Samaria on 15 and 17 August, and another officer was stabbed at Jerusalem's Lions' Gate on 26 August.

Three soldiers were injured (two seriously and one slightly) in a vehicle attack near Sinjil, Ramallah on 6 August. Another soldier was moderately injured by a pipe bomb thrown at an IDF post in Beit Jala on 19 August.

One civilian was slightly injured by gunfire at a passing vehicle near Kedumim on 30 August. Two other civilians were moderately and slightly injured by a Molotov cocktail thrown at a vehicle near Beit Hanina, north of Jerusalem, on 3 August.

 Data regarding terror attacks in August 2015

Following is a regional distribution of attacks:  3 attack from the Gaza Strip, (1 in July); 117 attacks in the Judea and Samaria (63 in July); 51 attacks in Jerusalem (42 in July).

 Jerusalem and the Judea and Samaria area: Most attacks executed in August 136 out of 168 were in the form of firebombs (July: 90 out of 105). 

Distribution of attacks according to regions and pattern profile:

 The Gaza Strip – 3 attack: rockets launching.

 Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – 117 attacks:  5 stabbing; 1 vehicular run-over attack; 4 small arms shooting; 22 IED (including pipe bombs and improvised grenade);  136 firebombs (50 in Jerusalem).

High-trajectory launchings from Gaza Strip and Sinai

Throughout August 2015 3 rockets were launched** from the Gaza Strip towards Israel as opposed to July: 2 rockets one from the Gaza Strip and one from Sinai.

I would be remiss if I did not draw special attention to the July figures; 12 IED/Pipe Bomb attacks and 90 firebomb attacks. In the interest of ‘fairness’ there was 1 arson/ firebomb attack allegedly committed by unknown person(s) of Israelis.  Still, 90:1 is still quite a ratio of restraint.  Although, I am not sure how much peace the Israeli public can stand.

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict or how Sara Netanyahu's household recycling fund can bring improvements to the Israeli GNP

The Rand Corporation recently released a report called The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

It has been making the rounds from Forward to the Jewish Press. I decided to take a quick read, and got half way through it and was struck by air of ‘lost in wonderland’ which haunts the writers of this report for most of its 273 pages. The question of ‘how much, who pays, and for how long’; is never fully addressed in the study.  It touts ‘end financial benefits’ to both the Israeli and Palestinian communities if a two-state solution is established while ignoring the one timeless fact of state sovereignty; nothing is free.

In 2005, the Rand Group released a study on the viability of a Palestinian State and estimated that the International community would need to invest over $33 billion USD over 10 years before a Palestinian State could potentially be a viable, rather than, just another failed mid-east state.  Who knows, what the price tag would bottom-line costs would be ten years later? 

When the 2005 study was released, the Gaza Strip was not Hamastan  nor had infrastructure had  been ravaged by three military engagements with the IDf.  Relations with the Egyptians had not  deteriorated to their current state with no signs of rapprochement in sight. Who pays, and how much is never fully explored. Maybe we can make the Greeks pay!

The recent Rand study makes a number or erroneous assumptions which bear little resemblance to the current facts on the ground. Such as, the Rand Report presumes there will be a full reconciliation between West Bank and Hamas leadership.  Currently, there has been a seven year separation with no true reconciliation for the foreseeable future. Just as recently as last summer, West Bank Palestinian dictator, Mahmoud Abbas, had to circumvent an attempt against his rule by Hamas members.  Nor is there any accounting for the greater infrastructure spending needed to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip from its current dilapidated state. 

This airy-fairy magical reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is vital for the Rand report’s most positive scenarios; two-statement peace agreement solution, a coordinated or unilateral withdrawal by the Israelis. In all Rand’s ‘best-case’ scenarios the report assumes that there will be magical territory congruity between the West Bank and Hamastan with no thought given to the practicalities of ‘how this is to be achieved’. I am sure, Fatah would really like to know.

The search and development for natural gas outside of the Gaza Strip, and the development of a deep sea port is absolutely vital and necessary to making Palestinian state viable, without this, the Palestinian state will be just another failed mid-East state in the community of nations. 

The Rand report does not, for even a moment, entertain the possibility, in the event of a unilateral uncoordinated withdrawal from the West Bank that the Israelis may chose not to carry on economic trade with their Palestinian neighbors. It would not be the first experience Israelis have had with undesirable neighbors... Even with a ‘peace’ agreement duly signed by all parties does not mean Israelis would chose to participate with closer ties, either economic or social with their neighbors. The Israelis will continue to thrive in the event of a divorce, but the Palestinian economy would collapse. And the Rand rolls the dice heavily on a complete reconciliation rather a divorce absolute.  

Another presumption of the Rand report is that the Allenby- King Hussein  border bridge between Jordan and the West Bank will be under full Palestinian control, which given the history of PLO in Jordan, I would suggest runs completely contrary to Jordanian security needs – or even taking into account the recent ‘coldness’ that has entered into Jordanian-Palestinian relationship. 

 And let’s talk about the settlements. The Rand report suggests anywhere from 60,000 to 100,000 Israeli-Jews would have to be evicted from their homes and relocated. It suggests the International community, in the interests of peace, should pick up at least 75% of the tab for evicting Israeli Jews from their homes.

The report never mentions the ‘actual’ cost or what that figure would look like but there is baseline to start.  The estimates for the disengagement from the Gaza Strip were around US$2 Billion for just under 9,000 Jews. So if we do the math, and take the lowest baseline figures for eviction that makes around 60,000 Jews, and it will cost approximately US$34 Billion. According to the Rand formula, the international community should be on the hook for approximately 75% to the tune of around US$25.5 Billion. Where the Israelis are going to up with an extra US$8.5 Billion is beyond my ability to project. Who knows, maybe Rand is counting on hitting up Sara Netanyahu's household fund for recycling of plastics and bottles for the Israeli contribution. 

When the chickens come home to roost

For years, I have defended the Americans next door. I have lived among them, went to school among them,  and worked among them.  There is an essential ‘goodness’ about most Americans that I encountered, and it was to honour that belief in their essential goodness and generosity that I defended them as a nation, but now….,In the last few years, I have seen America turn and twist in ways I would have never believed possible. Who they are, I know longer no. I watch their television and listen to their news, and I cannot help but wonder; do they even know themselves?

 The White House has used this current graphic on twitter,yes, twitter, to sell their negotiated Iran deal with the world. It’s another uncalled for malicious dig at Israeli Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, who has metamorphosed into Obama Administration’s personal Nemesis. More importantly, the demeaning and petulant behavior exhibited by POTUS towards a key regional ally, well, one can be excused for drawing the conclusion that it is better to be an enemy of America rather than a friend.   

Despite, all sound and the fury, issued via the White House concerning the alleged ‘Iranian deal’; it is the Iranians who are pointing thefinger and shouting ‘liar, liar, pants on fire’ at the White House.

When you have the Iranians discussing the 'press release' and the Americans waving the 'intent to finalize a deal'; who do you believe?

Israel Hayom offers this analysis:

While U.S. President Barack Obama is engaged in a "world war" with Congress over the framework nuclear deal with Iran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a clear stand on the matter, one of the foremost experts on Iran, Col. (ret.) Yigal Carmon, provides a fresh perspective and some new facts, which may send this hot potato rolling in new directions.

"The U.S. and Iran have, in fact, not reached any nuclear agreement," said Carmon, the founder and president of the prestigious Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). "The joint statement in Lausanne, which the Iranians defined as a press release, was nothing but a smokescreen meant to disguise difficult, ongoing disagreements between the parties," Carmon, who served as counterterrorism adviser to prime ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, and who has been following Arab politics and Middle East media closely for years, asserted. 

Carmon, who along with MEMRI's experts on Iran is currently in the institute's offices in Washington, believes the "fact sheet" released by the White House and the U.S. State Department, detailing the alleged deal with Iran, was "a ploy of incredible deception, meant to prevent Congress from imposing immediate, crippling sanctions on the Iranians."

Go read the rest, it just gets worse. If Israel Hayom is correct in their analysis; what on earth was the White House thinking? And was destroying the last shred of American creditability in the world less important than elevating the status of an empty suit president?