Iranian Nuclear Pact or how the Scarface Rules of Drug Dealing apply to real world politics

What’s most telling to me about the P5 +1 negotiated agreement with the Iranians was the deliberate omission of those countries from a seat at the negotiation table who have the most at stake on the outcome of this agreement.

Israel, the Gulf States, Egypt, not one had a seat at the table with the Iranians, and yet, a nuclear armed Iran poses an immediate and deadly threat to all these states, and only an indirect threat, and at that, only via ‘foreign’ business interests to the P5+1 states who sat around the table with the Iranians.

P5 refers to the 5 permanent members of the UN Security council; USA, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom.The plus 1 is Germany.  So why Germany, and not, say Italy or Switzerland? Well, Germany is a ‘key’ trading partner with Iran, and the Iranian nuclear program relies heavily on German engineering and manufacturing. Think Siemens, Linde, BASF, Lurgi, Mercedes, Volkswagen, and MAN to name a few.

 I would suggest that all P5 nations are poised to reap a major financial windfall with an Iran no longer under sanctions.  So it is in the financial best interest of the P5+1  for a deal, any deal, to be negotiated with the Iranians.  And to hell with American hostages, the Israelis or the Sunni States of the Middle East.  By the way, the German Economic Minister et al will be shortly landing today in Tehran to discuss, well, business opportunities.

To coin a cliché, this deal is all about the benjamins and has very little to do blocking Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon.  In order to safeguard the P5+1 vested financial interests, there is a little remarked upon clause in the deal. Arutz Sheva: 

One particularly interesting detail: Tucked away near the very end of the deal's massive text is a section entitled "Nuclear Safety, Safeguards and Security," which stipulates that the West will train Iran to thwart sabotage against its nuclear facilities. According to text, Iran will learn how to secure its controversial and covert nuclear program from all threats thanks to training by the "E3/EU+3," another designation for the P5+1 countries consisting of the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, as well as the EU.
The section seemingly begins benignly enough, with a clause saying that "E3/EU+3 parties, and possibly other states, as appropriate, are prepared to cooperate with Iran to establish a Nuclear Safety Centre in Iran, engage in workshops and training events in Iran." But then things take a turn, with the same world powers obligating to "co-operation in the form of training courses and workshops to strengthen Iran's ability to prevent, protect and respond to nuclear security threats to nuclear facilities and systems as well as to enable effective and sustainable nuclear security and physical protection systems."  Leaving no doubts about the intentions, the text then promises "co-operation through training and workshops to strengthen Iran’s ability to protect against, and respond to nuclear security threats, including sabotage."

The implications of this clause are huge. Let’s be real, the Saudis and other Gulf states do not the capacities to attack any part of the Iranian nuclear program but there is one state who does, and that state has been repeatedly threatened by the Iranians.  Conceivably, there could come a day, when United States will be actively using its nuclear and military intelligence to undermine any Israeli attempts to safeguard our people from Iranian threats.

The United States, despite the belief of a hard core group of anti-Semites, is not a proxy for Israel.  America is not Israel, and has never and will never, act in Israel’s best interest unless Israeli interests dovetails with American interests.

America has never fought in any of Israel’s wars, and will never.  In fact, the PLO owes its existenceto a beloved American President who chose to save Yasser Arafat and his menfrom the imminent Israeli death blow. America will sell Israel weapons, and will actively seek to contain Israel when Israeli interests clash with American policy.   I would suggest there is no special relationship between America and Israel except in the minds of American Jews and a cynical political class who regularly seek to exploit this myth for their own purposes and interests.  

Americans have been very cynically offering the Sunni statesand Israel the promise of increase military hardware but I would hazard a guess that any military largess offered is for ‘defensive’ rather than any offensive capacities, at best, there might be some meager offerings of ‘dual’ use military hardware – hardware which is primarily defensive but could be modified for and used in an offensive capacity in a best case scenario.

Iranian financial gains amount to over a billion US dollars, I suspect this largess will be filling the coffers of Russian, French and Chinese military manufacturers, with enough to spread around to arm Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.  If were a betting woman, I would place a bet that  there will be a major Iranian airplane deal with any of the P5+1 nations to bring Iran’s badly degraded air force up to first world standards sometime in the next year.  Woe is Yisrael, if America wins that contract.

Much has been made about the snap back provisions, I won’t even go there, but I will stay I find it rather telling that only inspectors will be made up from countries who have diplomatically relations with Iran. If that isn’t stacking the deck, I don’t what is.  And bonus points are awarded if you know which of  the Scarface Rules of Drug Dealing apply here.

It's rule #3. Never underestimate the other guy's greed.